MDS 2020 COVID Impact Report

Key findings include:

• Retailers have seen sales grow by 60% since March 2020
• E-bike sales more than doubled
• One pound in every five spent on bicycles during the pandemic was spent on e-bikes.

This 2020 report is one of only a few which the Bicycle Association makes available beyond its membership, and it is released to provide a definitive picture of what is happening in the UK market.

The full COVID Impact Report can be obtained for a fee from the Bicycle Association. Please contact [email protected], telephone 0203 857 4411, or visit https://www.bicycleassociation.org.uk/contact/.

Contents list preview

5	Introduction
8	Executive Summary – Figure 1: Percentage of the adult population cycling (twice in the past 28 days) in England, 2016/17-2018/19 – Figure 2: Annual growth (year-on-year) of UK cycling market sales, by main product segment (bikes, e-bikes, PACs, services, micro-mobility), 2019 – Figure 3: Estimated value of the UK cycling market by main product segment, 2019 – Figure 4: UK cycling activity, weekday and weekend monthly averages, March-October 2020 – Figure 5: Cycling participation (twice in the past 28 days), volume growth amongst adults in England, mid-March to mid-May 2020 versus mid-March to mid-May 2019 – Figure 6: Percentage of adults in England who cycled in the past week, 6th April-26th October 2020 – Figure 7: Monthly growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market total sales value, versus all UK retail sales (ONS), January-September 2020 – Figure 8: Growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market sales, by main product segment, April-September 2020 – Figure 9: UK bikes average sale price, 2019, January-March 2020 and April-September 2020 – Figure 10: E-bike volume and value share of all bike/e-bike sales, 2019 and April-September 2020 – Figure 11: Monthly value growth (year-on-year) of UK cycling service/repairs and care plans, April-September 2020 – Figure 12: UK cycling value market share of sales channels, 2019 and April-September 2020 – Figure 13: Growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market sales, by main product segment, January-September 2020
19	Part One – The Cycling Market Pre-COVID-19
19	Cycling usage & participation – Figure 14: Average number of trips, by main travel mode in England, 2009-19 – Figure 15: Average distance cycled in England, 2009-19 – Figure 16: Adult participation (twice in the past 28 days) in selected leisure/sporting activities in England, May 2016/17-May 2019/20 – Figure 17: Percentage of the adult population cycling (twice in the past 28 days) in England, 2016/17-2018/19 (leisure and sport vs travel) – Figure 18: Percentage of adults who cycle at least once a week in England, 2016/17-2018/19 (by gender, age band, socio-economic group) – Figure 19: Percentage of adults that cycle at least once a week in England by region, 2018/19 (East of England, East Midlands, Inner London, North East, North West, Outer London, West Midlands, Yorkshire)
24	Untapped potential
25	Cycling market total volume and value – Figure 20: Annual volume of UK bike imports, 2011-2019 – Figure 21: Annual volume of UK e-bike imports, 2017-2019 – Figure 22: Estimated value of the UK cycling market by main product segment (bikes, e-bikes, PACs, services, micro-mobility), 2019
27	BA Cycling sales data 2019 & Q1 2020: Overall market 2019 – Figure 23: Annual growth (year-on-year) of UK cycling market sales, by main product segment, 2019 – Figure 24: Volume, value and average price of UK cycling market sales, by main product segment, 2019 Bikes 2019 – Figure 25: Bicycle volume and value market share by category (Balance, BMX, Commute/Flatbar/Hybrid, Cyclocross, Folding, Frame, Gravel, Kids, Mountain, Road, Triathlon/TT/Track), 2019 – Figure 26: Bicycle volume, value and average price growth (year-on-year) by category, 2019 – Figure 27: Bicycle volume sales growth (year-on-year), by price band, 2019 E-bikes 2019 – Figure 28: E-bike volume and value market share by category (Commute/Flatbar/Hybrid, Folding, Gravel, Mountain, Road, other), 2019 – Figure 29: E-bike volume, value and average price growth (year-on-year) by category, 2019 January-March 2020 – Figure 30: Growth in UK total cycling market sales (year-on-year), January, February and March 2020 – Figure 31: Annual growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market sales, by main product segment, January-March 2020
33	Part Two – The COVID-19 Context
33	Timeline of events January 2020-November 2020 – Phase One – Full Lockdown – Phase Two – Past the Peak – Phase Three – Summer Relaxation – Phase Four – Second Wave
37	Weather patterns during the pandemic – Figure 32: UK mean temperature, average sunshine and rainfall, April-October 2020 – Impact of the weather on cycling
38	The wider economic & retail picture Recession – Figure 33: UK GDP growth, February-September 2020 Retail sales – Figure 34: UK retail sales year-on-year value growth, January-September 2020 “Winners and losers” Online retail trend – Figure 35: UK volume retail sales comparative value growth, indexed by main retail sector, January 2019-September 2020 – Figure 36: Online spending as a proportion of total UK retail sales value, January 2019-September 2020
43	Part Three – Transport Usage during the Pandemic
43	Cycling activity versus other transport modes – Figure 37: UK daily transport usage, 1st March-6th November 2020 – Figure 38: UK cycling activity, weekday and weekend monthly averages, March-October 2020
45	Commuting & Working From Home Commuting trends during the pandemic – Figure 39: UK working patterns, May-November 2020 WFH is likely to be a permanent trend
47	Part Four – Cycling Participation during the Pandemic
47	Sport England data Active Lives Survey – Figure 40: Cycling participation (twice in the past 28 days), volume growth amongst adults in England, mid-March to mid-May 2020 versus mid-March to mid-May 2019 Weekly activity tracker survey – Figure 41: Percentage of adults in England who cycled in the past week, 6th April-26th October 2020
49	Demographic trends Gender – Figure 42: Percentage of adults in England who cycled in the past week, by gender, 6th April-26th October 2020 Age – Figure 43: Percentage of adults in England who cycled in the past week, by age, 6th April-26th October 2020 Socio-economic group – Figure 44: Percentage of adults in England who cycled in the past week, by socio-economic group, 6th April-26th October 2020 Region – Figure 45: Percentage of adults in England who cycled in the past week, by region, 6th April-26th October 2020
53	Cycling: Amount – Figure 46: How much people cycled during the COVID-19 lockdown compared to before, 6th April-25th May 2020 Purpose – Figure 47: Purpose of cycling in the past week, 18th May-26th October 2020 Online engagement with cycling – Figure 48: Google trend* for UK searches on ‘cycling’, ‘bike’ or ‘bicycle’, April 2019-October 2020
56	Part Five – Health & Wellbeing Factors
58	Part Six – Summary of the Main Drivers of the COVID-19 Cycling Boom – Figure 49: Key drivers of the COVID-19 cycling boom, 2020
59	Part Seven – The Impact of COVID-19 on Cycling Sales
59	Overall market impact – Dramatic growth… – …But growth could have been even bigger
60	Impact by main product category – Figure 50: Monthly growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market total sales value, versus all UK retail sales (ONS), January-September 2020 – Figure 51: Growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market sales, by value, volume, and ASP, and by main product segment (bikes, e-bikes, PACs, services, micro-mobility), April-September 2020 – Figure 52: Monthly growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market sales value, by main product segment, March-September 2020 – Figure 53: Monthly growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market sales value, by main product segment, March-September 2020 (tabulated)
63	Detailed impact on bikes – Figure 54: Monthly growth (year-on-year) in UK bike sales, March-September 2020, by volume, value and ASP – Figure 55: Monthly UK bike volume sales growth (year-on-year), by price band, April-September 2020 – Figure 56: Monthly growth (year-on-year) in UK bike volume sales, generalists versus specialists, April-September 2020 – Figure 57: UK bike volume sales growth (year-on-year), by price band, 2019, January-March 2020 and April-September 2020 – Figure 58: UK bikes average sale price, 2019, January-March 2020 and April-September 2020 – Figure 59: UK bike volume sales by type (Balance, BMX, Commute/Flatbar/Hybrid, Cyclocross, Folding, Frame, Gravel, Kids, Mountain, Road, Triathlon/TT/Track), April-September 2020 – Figure 60: UK bike value sales by type, April-September 2020 – Figure 61: UK bike volume market share by type, 2019 and April-September 2020 – Figure 62: UK bike value market share by type, 2019 and April-September 2020 – Figure 63: UK bike sales volume and value growth (year-on-year), by type, April-September 2020
70	Detailed impact on e-bikes – Figure 64: Monthly growth (year-on-year) in UK e-bike sales, March-September 2020, by value, volume and ASP – Figure 65: Monthly volume growth (year-on-year) in UK e-bike sales, generalists versus specialists, April-September 2020 – Figure 66: UK e-bike volume sales growth (year-on-year), by price band, 2019, January-March 2020 and April-September 2020 – Figure 67: UK e-bikes average sale price, 2019, January-March 2020 and April-September 2020 – Figure 68: UK e-bike volume sales by type (Commute/Flatbar/Hybrid, Folding, Gravel, Mountain, Road, other), April-September 2020 – Figure 69: UK e-bike value sales by type, April-September 2020 – Figure 70: UK e-bike volume and value market share by type, 2019 and April-September 2020 – Figure 71: UK e-bike sales volume and value growth (year-on-year), by type, April-September 2020 – Figure 72: E-bike volume and value share of all bike/e-bike sales, 2019 and April-September 2020
76	Detailed impact on PACs – Figure 73: Value growth (year-on-year) of UK cycling PACs, by main product category, 2019 and April-September 2020 – Figure 74: Market share by value of UK cycling PACs, by main product category (Accessories, Componenty, Cycling apparel, Helmets, Nutrition) 2019 and April-September 2020 – Figure 75: Value growth (year-on-year) of UK cycling PACs, by products (Bags & Panniers, Bottles Cages & Hyd-Packs, Brakes and Brake-pads, Chains, Child Seats & Trailers, Computers, GPS & Watches, Gears & Drivetrain, Helmets – Commuter, Helmets – Kids, Helmets – Mountain (Adult), Helmets – Road (Adult), Inner Tubes, Lights & Reflectives, Locks, Other, Pedals, Pumps & Puncture Repair, Shorts & Bibs, Tools & Maintenance, Tyres), April-September 2020
77	Detailed impact on services – Figure 76: Value growth (year-on-year) of UK cycling services, by main product category (Bike Hire, Bikefix, Care Plans, Events, Service/Repair), 2019 and April-September 2020 -Figure 77: Monthly value growth (year-on-year) of UK cycling service/repairs and care plans, April-September 2020
79	Impact on sales channels – Figure 78: UK cycling value sales growth (year-on-year), by sales channel (in store, online click-and-collect, online direct), 2019, January-March 2020 and April-September 2020 – Figure 79: UK cycling value sales growth (year-on-year), by product segment and sales channel, April-September 2020 – Figure 80: UK cycling value market share of sales channels, 2019 and April-September 2020
82	Generalists versus specialists – Figure 81: UK cycling value growth (year-on-year), generalists versus specialists, 2019, January-March 2020 and April-September 2020 – Figure 82: UK cycling value growth (year-on-year), generalists versus specialists, by product segment, April-September 2020
84	Regions – Figure 83: UK cycling value growth (year-on-year), by regional store (Greater London, Midlands, North, Northern Ireland, Scotland, South) and UK-wide online retailers, April-September 2020 – Figure 84: UK cycling value market share, by regional store and UK-wide online retailers, 2019 and April-September 2020
86	The overall cycling market in 2020 – Figure 85: Growth (year-on-year) in UK cycling market sales, by main product segment, January-September 2020 – 2020 full-year projections
88	Part Eight – Industry Launches & Developments
88	Bikes for NHS/key workers Bike shops opening
89	Sales channels/customer service – Services & repairs – New to cycling – Indoor trainers – E-bikes & e-cargo
91	Part Nine – Conclusions and the Future Direction of the UK Cycling Market after COVID-19
91	The short term market The post-COVID market
92	Some specific takeaways
94	Longer term prospects: crisis and opportunity